TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits
AU - Constantinescu, R.
AU - White, J. T.
AU - Connor, C. B.
AU - Hopulele-Gligor, A.
AU - Charbonnier, S.
AU - Thouret, J.-C.
AU - Lindsay, J. M.
AU - Bertin, D.
PY - 2022/1/1
Y1 - 2022/1/1
N2 - Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection-diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78–1.4 × 10 11 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5–16.5 km, and plume height 8–35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.
AB - Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection-diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78–1.4 × 10 11 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5–16.5 km, and plume height 8–35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.
KW - eruption source parameters
KW - uncertainty quantification
KW - eruption magnitude
KW - tephra fallout modeling
KW - tephra inversion
UR - https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/geo_facpub/2340
U2 - 10.1029/2021GL097425
DO - 10.1029/2021GL097425
M3 - Article
VL - 49
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
ER -