Why are those options smiling?

Louis H. Ederington, Wei Guan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The most popular explanation of the "smile" observed in Black-Scholes implied volatilities is that it is due to erroneous assumptions in the B-S model regarding tile return distribution, whether the assumption of constant volatility or the assumption of log-normal returns, that cause the calculated implied volatilities to differ from their true values. The presumption is that if the implied volatilities were calculated using a model based on correct distributional assumptions, the smile should disappear, i.e., the volatility becomes flat. There should be no profits to a trading strategy based on the B-S smile, as the options that Black-Scholes identifies as relatively over- or underpriced are in fact correctly priced. We find, however, that in the S&P 500 options market such delta-neutral strategies yield substantial pre-transaction cost profits. Actual profits are strongly correlated with the B-S model's predictions, although generally smaller. We conclude that while part of the volatility smile may be due to erroneous distributional assumptions in the B-S model, a substantial part must reflect other forces. The smile persists despite these substantial pre-transaction cost trading profits, because maintaining the trading portfolio's original low-risk profile requires frequent rebalancing that quickly eats away at profits. Although the portfolios are originally delta-neutral and either gamma- or vega-neutral, they quickly lose this neutrality.

Original languageAmerican English
JournalDefault journal
StatePublished - Jan 1 2002

Keywords

  • Investments
  • Volatility (finance)
  • Securities markets
  • Profit
  • Transaction costs
  • Break-even analysis
  • International relations

Disciplines

  • Business
  • Finance

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