TY - JOUR
T1 - Why are those options smiling?
AU - Ederington, Louis H.
AU - Guan, Wei
N1 - Ederington, L.H. & Guan, W. (2002). Why are those options smiling? Journal of Derivatives, 10(2), 9-34.
PY - 2002/1/1
Y1 - 2002/1/1
N2 - The most popular explanation of the "smile" observed in Black-Scholes implied volatilities is that it is due to erroneous assumptions in the B-S model regarding tile return distribution, whether the assumption of constant volatility or the assumption of log-normal returns, that cause the calculated implied volatilities to differ from their true values. The presumption is that if the implied volatilities were calculated using a model based on correct distributional assumptions, the smile should disappear, i.e., the volatility becomes flat. There should be no profits to a trading strategy based on the B-S smile, as the options that Black-Scholes identifies as relatively over- or underpriced are in fact correctly priced. We find, however, that in the S&P 500 options market such delta-neutral strategies yield substantial pre-transaction cost profits. Actual profits are strongly correlated with the B-S model's predictions, although generally smaller. We conclude that while part of the volatility smile may be due to erroneous distributional assumptions in the B-S model, a substantial part must reflect other forces. The smile persists despite these substantial pre-transaction cost trading profits, because maintaining the trading portfolio's original low-risk profile requires frequent rebalancing that quickly eats away at profits. Although the portfolios are originally delta-neutral and either gamma- or vega-neutral, they quickly lose this neutrality.
AB - The most popular explanation of the "smile" observed in Black-Scholes implied volatilities is that it is due to erroneous assumptions in the B-S model regarding tile return distribution, whether the assumption of constant volatility or the assumption of log-normal returns, that cause the calculated implied volatilities to differ from their true values. The presumption is that if the implied volatilities were calculated using a model based on correct distributional assumptions, the smile should disappear, i.e., the volatility becomes flat. There should be no profits to a trading strategy based on the B-S smile, as the options that Black-Scholes identifies as relatively over- or underpriced are in fact correctly priced. We find, however, that in the S&P 500 options market such delta-neutral strategies yield substantial pre-transaction cost profits. Actual profits are strongly correlated with the B-S model's predictions, although generally smaller. We conclude that while part of the volatility smile may be due to erroneous distributional assumptions in the B-S model, a substantial part must reflect other forces. The smile persists despite these substantial pre-transaction cost trading profits, because maintaining the trading portfolio's original low-risk profile requires frequent rebalancing that quickly eats away at profits. Although the portfolios are originally delta-neutral and either gamma- or vega-neutral, they quickly lose this neutrality.
KW - Investments
KW - Volatility (finance)
KW - Securities markets
KW - Profit
KW - Transaction costs
KW - Break-even analysis
KW - International relations
UR - https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/fac_publications/758
UR - https://login.ezproxy.lib.usf.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bft&AN=510287826&site=ehost-live
M3 - Article
JO - Default journal
JF - Default journal
ER -